Our Riding: Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke overview, from highest to lowest
- Randall Garrison, NDP, elected with 34.1% (23,526 votes)
- David Merner, Greens, 26,3% (18,135 votes)
- Randall Pewarchuk, Conservatives, 18.9% (13,054 votes)
- Jamie Hammond, Liberal, 17.9% (12,342 votes)
- Jeremy Gustafson, People’s Party, 1.9% (1,291 votes)
- Josh Steffler, Libertarion, 0.4% (284 votes)
- Tyson Strandlund, Communist, 0.2% (107 votes)
- Lewis Lesosky, Independent, 0.1% (98 votes)
- Fidelia Godron, Independent, 0.1% (95 votes)
- Philip Ney, Independent, 0.1% (81 votes)
Centre-left voters share priorities going forward, opening up potential for legislative cooperation
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party breathed a sigh of relief Monday night, having held onto enough seats in the House of Commons to claim a mandate in seeking to form a minority government, but facing the challenges that will come with relying on support from other parties to implement their agenda.
The Liberal path to minority victory ran through Ontario, where the incumbent party’s vote efficiency gave it the needed seats to stave off defeat. The electoral result conversely represents a bitter but symbolic victory for the Conservative Party of Canada under Andrew Scheer. The CPC increased its seat count with at least an extra twenty seats and – critically – won the popular vote but failed to topple the Liberals.
It was a similarly disappointing night for the NDP – whose campaign and leader came alive in the last few weeks but was ultimately dependent on a shifting and uncommitted left of centre base – which appeared to either switch to the Liberals at the last moment or stay home altogether.
One thing was true throughout this campaign; voters, especially those on the left of centre, were uncertain about what they wanted. Even last week, with fewer than seven days until the election, just half of voters said they were locked into their top choice in this election.
With so much room for movement, the political makeup of the country on October 22 was anything but settled heading into voting day. What was clear, however, was that the Conservative Party was likely garner the support of close to one-in-three residents. The CPC’s base was solid, while the NDP and Liberals were less certain.
With this uncertainty in mind, consider the following scenarios that the Angus Reid Institute anticipated for the Liberal Party. While the party’s established base appeared to be 29 percent, those who said that they were “somewhat likely” to switch before the election looked to potentially push the party to 34 percent. The party ended the night hovering around the 33 percent mark nationally.
Ultimately, the Liberal Party was supported by 33 percent of Canadians, likely picking up last-minute votes from New Democrats who made the choice to vote strategically, with their heads, rather than with their hearts despite increased personal momentum and favourability for leader Jagmeet Singh in the final weeks of the campaign. Just over one-third (35 percent) supported the Conservatives.
Read the rest of the story here: www.angusreid.org, including:
- What happened?
- Vote efficiency favoured Liberals
- Was Ford a factor?
- How will Canadians feel about minority?
- Shared priorities to watch
- Pipelines will likely continue to divide